Forward dividend forecast, explained

What a forward dividend forecast actually is

A forward forecast is the projected dividend income your portfolio will throw off over the next 12 months — using the latest declared rate for each position multiplied by your share count. It's the income equivalent of looking at your salary slip instead of last year's tax return.

It's a forecast built from declared rates, not a hand-rolled guess. The forecast uses dividend schedules that companies and ETFs have already published, not estimates of what they might pay. Where a position has not declared a forward rate, FolioInsights either annualises the most recent regular payment or leaves the row out — never invents a number. Forward data still carries assumptions: dividend policies change, specials drop off, share classes get reorganised — so a forecast is directional, not contractual.

How it's built — declared schedules, not estimates

For each open position, FolioInsights looks up the most recent declared dividend schedule per instrument. The schedule includes the ex-date, pay-date, declared amount per share, currency and frequency. Multiplying by your share count gives the per-position forward income.

Currency is handled at current FX so the totals are in your display currency. Each position keeps its own native-currency forecast underneath, which matters for high-yielders denominated in a different currency than the rest of your portfolio.

Forward yield, in one formula

Forward yield = forecast 12-month dividend income ÷ current portfolio value. It's the cash-on-cash income you'd get from today's holdings if every dividend pays as currently declared.

Forward yield is different from trailing yield (last 12 months actually paid divided by current value) and from a stock's quoted yield (last declared annualised divided by its own price, not your portfolio total). Forward yield is the one that tells you what comes next.

Reading the monthly buckets

The forecast splits the next 12 months into monthly buckets so you can see the income cadence. Some portfolios pay almost everything in March and September (typical European single stocks); others are smooth month-to-month (US monthly payers and most ETFs that smooth distributions).

The top contributors list shows the five positions producing the most forward income. If one position contributes more than ~25% of forward income, your dividend stream has the same concentration risk that your capital does — worth a glance against the Concentration KPI.

Limits of any forecast

Companies cut dividends. ETFs change distribution policies. Special dividends inflate trailing numbers but are not in forward. Currency moves change the euro/dollar total even if the local payments don't.

Treat the forecast as a planning tool, not a promise. The Pillars panel's Income axis pairs forward yield with 3-year dividend growth precisely because growth is a leading indicator that yield is sustainable — a high yield with falling growth is a warning sign.

See your forward income →

What's the difference between trailing and forward yield?

Trailing yield is what your portfolio actually paid over the past 12 months divided by current value. Forward yield is what it's projected to pay over the next 12 months using declared rates. Forward is the planning number; trailing is the realised number.

What if a company hasn't declared next quarter's dividend yet?

FolioInsights annualises the most recent declared <em>regular</em> payment for that position. If even the prior payment is missing — typical for newer holdings or ones that just initiated a dividend — the position is left out of the forward total rather than guessed at. Special dividends are excluded from the annualisation because they would overstate forward income.

Does the forecast account for withholding tax?

The headline forecast is gross. Trailing dividend income in the analytics page <em>is</em> shown net of the Dividendbelasting rows from your DeGiro CSV, so you can compare gross-forward vs net-trailing and sanity-check whether the spread matches the expected withholding rate for your domicile. This is a directional comparison, not an exact reconciliation — forward income depends on future holdings, share counts and rate changes, so the two numbers won't tie out to the last cent.

Why don't all my positions appear in the forecast?

Three reasons. (1) The position doesn't pay a dividend. (2) The upstream schedule has no declared rate for the ISIN yet. (3) The position is closed. The 'payer count' under the headline tells you how many positions actually contribute.

Can dividends actually be cut?

Yes. Forecasts use declared rates as of today; declarations can change. The Pillars Income axis pairs forward yield with 3-year dividend growth so you can spot the warning combination of high yield + flat or falling growth, which historically precedes cuts.